Monday was profitable. Tuesday was profitable. Then Wednesday gave it all back.
It wasn’t a good night, finishing 1-3 and dropping more than 2.5 units. That wiped out the profits for the week and put us back in the red heading into Thursday. The one bright spot was Foster Griffin Day, which continues to cash.
Unfortunately, Kyle Harrison got hit hard, the Orioles gave up a ton of runs to the Cubs, and Matt Olson struck out three times. Atlanta still won 3-0, but Olson finished 0-for-4, leading to a rough overall day.
Thursday’s card features three official plays – one from the World Cup and two from Major League Baseball.
France vs. Morocco: Over 2.5 Goals (+104)
Let’s begin with the World Cup.
The matchup between France and Morocco is attracting plenty of professional money on the under, but I don’t agree with it.
France is my pick to win the World Cup, both on my bracket and my futures ticket. However, there’s no reason to think about hedging in the quarterfinals. If France reaches the final, then we can talk about that. For this match, I’m leaving the side alone.
The total sits at 2.5 goals, and I think it’s too low. We’ve already seen several favorites – including Argentina and Spain – fall behind before rallying to win. Those comeback situations have created goals, and I think this match could follow a similar script.
The game is being played in Foxborough, where there should be a large French crowd. France has enough firepower to score multiple goals on its own.
The question becomes whether Morocco can contribute. I think they can. The weather should favor Morocco, with temperatures expected to be close to 90 degrees at kickoff.
If Morocco scores first, France will have to push forward. If France scores first, Morocco will eventually have to press, opening more opportunities on the counterattack.
Either way, I’m expecting goals.
- Pick: France vs. Morocco Over 2.5 Goals (+104) (1 unit)
Athletics vs. Tigers: Athletics Moneyline (+115)
The second play is another opportunity to fade Framber Valdez. This has been one of the more profitable pitching trends throughout the season.
Detroit enters on a roll, winning four straight games and seven of its last eight. That makes this a little uncomfortable, but Valdez continues to be a pitcher worth fading.
The Tigers lost every game he started during the month of May. They’ve also dropped his only July start, a 10-4 loss to Texas in which Valdez surrendered five earned runs over five innings.
The Athletics counters with Jack Perkins. Perkins hasn’t been great, either. The Athletics have lost four straight games he’s started, and he posted a 6.65 ERA during June. Last time out, he allowed seven earned runs.
Still, the A’s offense has been far more productive than what it has shown during this series, scoring only three total runs through the first two games.
The Athletics are trying to avoid the sweep, and while that trend is generally stronger at home than on the road, fading Valdez at plus money remains the preferred play.
- Pick: Athletics Moneyline (+115) (1 unit)
Brewers vs. Cardinals: Cardinals Moneyline (+113)
The final official play also comes with plus money.
Andre Pallante has quietly been one of the hottest pitchers to back over the last two months. The Cardinals are 7-1 over his last eight starts. During June, St. Louis went 4-1 when Pallante took the mound. Most recently, he threw 5.2 scoreless innings in a 17-1 victory over the Cubs.
The Cardinals finally snapped a four-game losing streak in this series by winning 5-1 on Wednesday.
This is an important game. Milwaukee already owns a comfortable lead atop the division. The Cardinals, meanwhile, trail by 9.5 games. Falling another game behind this early in July would make climbing back into the race even more difficult.
Milwaukee starts Logan Henderson, who has been solid with a 2.74 ERA. The Brewers have won each of his last three starts while he has allowed zero, one, and two earned runs.
This likely won’t turn into a high-scoring game. Instead, it comes down to trusting Pallante and taking another plus-money opportunity.
- Pick: Cardinals Moneyline (+113) (1 unit)
Thursday’s Betting Card
- France vs. Morocco Over 2.5 Goals (+104) (1 unit)
- Athletics Moneyline (+115) (1 unit)
- Cardinals Moneyline (+113) (1 unit)
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